Dany Heatley is off to his usual quick start, ignoring San Jose’s offensive vacation last night against the hardly-vaunted Phoenix defense. Each of the last three seasons now, Heatley has started off averaging at least a point per game through the team’s sixth of the season. But surprisingly, that isn’t much of an indicator of success for his teams. Despite Heatley’s 5 goals and 5 assists, the Sharks are just 3-2-1. Last year, the pace was six points through six games; the Senators went 2-3-1, and eventually missed the postseason. In 2007-08, however, he posted seven points in that span and Ottawa won the first five tilts; that team eventually melted down and stumbled into the playoffs, only to receive the broom from Pittsburgh. Heatley scored 41 and39 goals in his last two seasons, numbers befitting of a man of Heatley’s talent, but the Sharks need him to perform even beyond those figures. He is twice a 50-goal scorer; in each of those seasons, his team had advanced to the postseason and won at least one series. But when Heatley failed to reach the 50-goal plateau, he has failed to make the playoffs each year but 07-08, a first-round exit. Additionally, Heatley’s career shooting percentage is .161, and every season except 07-08, his percentage has fallen between .150 and .170. Given those numbers and the success of Heatley’s teams when he plays like an MVP, the recipe for success is simple: The more he shoots, the more he scores, the more he wins. Sounds obvious, but a dynamic scorer does not a playoff team make (ask former teammate Ilya Kovalchuk). Heatley is just a player who tends to make the rest of the team better in addition to his production, since his line is often countered by the opponent’s best defenders. If they’re out to stop him, they aren’t out to stop another scoring line. Given San Jose’s inconsistency, the more Heatley scores and the more he establishes himself as the team’s best player, the more he’ll open up the game for the Sharks’ other talented forwards. And if that happens, San Jose will run away with the President’s Trophy and make a deep run into the playoffs this spring.

Anze Kopitar averaged a point per game through five games each of his first two seasons before a relatively pedestrian start last season, but has had by far his best  season-opening stretch with 10 points this season. Kopitar is a dynamic young forward, but his hot start (which includes four goals) is even more impressive given the relative infrequency with which he puts shots on goal. Last year, that got him into trouble: He had just two goals in 17 games on only 45 shots. His other two seasons, he scored just 5 goals in his first 15 games as a sophomore and 3 goals in that time as a rookie, a campaign which included two goals in the season opener. Kopitar is a better playmaker than a scorer, and his shot is no slouch, but the quick start—specifically in the goal column—begs one question: Has the young Kings forward finally blossomed into one of the league’s premiere forwards? He needs just one more goal to equal his best October effort, and that came during his 77-point sophomore season. The Kings have plenty of young talent and a ton of speed at the top; perhaps he is benefiting from having plenty of open ice to work with. Or maybe he was just fortunate to be a big player in L.A.’s back-to-back six-goal efforts against San Jose and Minnesota. Either way, if in fact Kopitar’s game has finally had that “eureka” moment to put him among the game’s most feared forwards, can he keep up with the likes of Heatley, Kovalchuk and Mike Richards, perennial high-scoring also-rans behind the Alex and Geno Show? If he can, the Kings will likely still miss the playoffs, but they sure will be fun to watch.

Marian Gaborik started the season with 5 goals and 9 points, much to the delight of New York Rangers fans. That start was exactly what Broadway was hoping for when they signed the dynamic yet oft-injured winger, but this start could foreshadow a very special year from Gaborik. When last he played a full season, in 07-08, he had 8 points and just one goal in all of October; that season, he posted career-highs in goals (42), points (83) and plus/minus (plus-17). He has had better starts, but all before his emergence as a bona fide superstar (when healthy). Although his pace is for a 123-point season (which, with no offense intended to Gaborik, is unlikely even for guys who happen to wear numbers 8 and 71), is it possible he could get to 100? A 100-point season not only puts the Blueshirts comfortably in the playoffs, but also has them contending for a division title. They certainly have the goaltending, but what they haven’t had is an offensive spark plug (sorry, Chris Drury). Gaborik makes this team a serious contender but the question seems to be less about whether he can keep up his torrid pace and more about whether he can stay off the trainer’s table.

THE ONLY PARADE IS THE ONE TO THE EXITS: The Toronto Maple Leafs have played so poorly through five games that the current roster of the Reading Royals, the team’s ECHL affiliate currently in training camp, might have a better chance of beating an NHL team. Being outscored 2-to-1 while allowing nearly five goals a game, IN ADDITION to boasting the league’s 29^th-best penalty kill, has a way of keeping a team out of the win column. The new-and-improved defense has only gotten as far as the “new” part at the same time the offense has sputtered to a complete halt. One wonders if Phil Kessel has begun reconsideration of the five-year deal he penned just over two weeks ago. On the goaltending front, the team’s best effort (as expected) came from Jonas Gustavsson, who is currently on the IR with a groin injury (which, as far as goalies are concerned, is an injury that never fully heals). As for Vesa Toskala, CTP has compiled a list of goaltenders that could be considered more viable options in goal at the present: Allen Bester, Don Beaupre, Marcel Cousineau, Glenn Healy, Peter Ing, Mike Palmateer, Corey Schwab, Rick Wamsley and Ken Wregget. While his defense (or lack thereof) hasn’t helped matters any, Toskala simply has not played very well; in fact, one wonders if the groin he had surgery on late last season is bothering him again. Either way, the play in goal is an area of concern for a team that had playoff hopes at the beginning of the season, hopes that are quickly fading as the team falls further behind the league’s front runners. At the time of this writing, Toronto was cruising toward another loss, which would leave them at 0-5-1 on the season. Joey MacDonald got the start in that game and struggled. When Gustavsson returns, is he handed the starting job? Or does Ron Wilson stick with Toskala while he works through his struggles? Already the season invokes memories of the 2006-07 Philadelphia Flyers, who stumbled in October and never recovered en route to the worst record in the league.

AND SPEAKING OF GOALTENDING: Chris Osgood was chased in the second period by the Buffalo Sabres, and while Osgood has been subject to frequent criticism, and while some of the rebounds he allowed in tonight’s game could best be described as  enormous, on many occasions the only question to be asked was this one: Where is the defense? Osgood got no help this evening, and unfortunately for Detroit, that is quickly becoming a trend.

WINNERS THIS WEEKEND: Chicago, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay

LOSERS THIS WEEKEND: Florida, Nashville, New York Islanders, Toronto, Washington

LAST WEEK’S PICK ‘EM: 2-0-1

THIS WEEK’S PICK ‘EM (WEDNESDAY, 10/14):

Los Angeles (4-1-0) at New York Rangers (5-1-0): Good start by L.A., but unlikely to last. Henrik Lundqvist will shine in this one, such that the Blueshirts may not need more scoring from Marian Gaborik. WINNER: New York.

Edmonton at Chicago (both 3-1-1): Chicago’s 5-goal comeback was impressive. On a hunch, CTP predicts a letdown at the hands of surprising Edmonton. They certainly have the goaltending advantage in one Nikolai Khabibulin. WINNER: Edmonton.

Nashville (2-2-0) at Dallas (1-0-3): Nashville came back to Earth quickly after a 2-0 start. Meanwhile, Dallas’s record looks bad, but notice that zero in the second column. A point in every game means that the team is competitive. Expect a close game again, but give the nod to Dallas based  on all-around more potent offense. WINNER: Dallas.

THURSDAY: Time to get caught up on the news from around the NHL.

1) Weekend Recap will move to Tuesday, as Monday is traditionally scheduled lightly and would be best served if included with the weekend’s games.

2) No regular post on Wednesday will be followed by Thursday’s CTP Below The Dots, the successor to CTP Daily. This should provide more news and notes in one sitting, which is more efficient for readers and for the author.

3) Faceoff Friday will be replaced with CTP’s Backchecking; it will remain a week-in-review segment with statistics and objective CTP rankings, but will instead appear on Saturdays (or, when possible, Friday evenings) before the start of the 7:00 p.m. ET games.

4) Occasional Friday and Sunday posts will appear as necessary, tagged as CTP Update.

5) Extended commentary and other features will post on Monday, Wednesday or Friday, whichever is most topical.

Thank you, and hope you enjoy the new and improved Cycling The Puck.

LOOKING BACK

THE GOOD: The Calgary Flames. Through Thursday, nobody had played in four games and won them all except this squad, but the improved defense is hardly the reason why. Calgary has allowed three goals in each game, but has scored 5, 4, 4 and 4 times in those games. At least they’re consistent.
WHY IT WILL LAST: The Flames are scoring without help from the usual suspects. Rene Bourque, while a fine player, should not be leading the team in scoring—and yet he is. Dion Phaneuf is second. Meanwhile, Olli Jokinen and Jarome Iginla have just two points apiece, a pace that the two are likely to pick up. Once they start scoring, Calgary could boast a difficult offense to stop.
WHY IT WON’T LAST: Mikka Kiprusoff has played every minute so far. CTP declared in the Northwest Division preview that head coach Brent Sutter needed to give his number one netminder a rest so that the Flames didn’t run out of gas late in the season. So far, Calgary seems content to ride Kipper so long as the team keeps scoring.

THE BAD: The Detroit Red Wings. Losing Johan Franzen to a torn ACL, and thusly losing his services until February at the earliest, hurts the team’s scoring, but his production can be replaced in Detroit’s offensive system. What remains a problem is the goaltending; Chris Osgood looked fine in his most recent outing last night, but allowing 11 goals in three games looks very similar to last year’s Red Wings team, a squad that was lousy on the PK, didn’t play defense and didn’t have a reliable option in net.
WHY IT WILL LAST: 3.67 goals allowed per game, 55.6 percent success on the penalty kill. Those numbers are hardly what you’d expect from a team that has reservations for the playoffs, let alone the Stanley Cup Finals.
WHY IT WON’T LAST: It’s the Red Wings. Seriously now.

THE UGLY: The Toronto Maple Leafs. Their opening week in one word: abysmal. No team in the league has gotten off to a worse start; the defense stumbled out of the gate; and Vesa Toskala began the season seeming resigned to losing his starting job to Jonas Gustavsson. Fortunately, The Monster’s groin acted up, giving Toskala a few more games to pull his game together and try to establish a hold on the starting job. Oh, and Matt Stajan has been the team’s best player. Maybe he’s finally fulfilling his potential, but more likely, the team’s better players have simply failed to play up to expectations.
WHY IT WILL LAST: Pressure. The Leafs need to find a way to win this weekend, or the Toronto media will write off the season. The team is carrying a tremendous weight of expectations, but it may be too great for this team to handle.
WHY IT WON’T LAST: Ron Wilson-coached teams play too hard to look this bad and lose this often. Moreover, Toskala got torched by Washington (who scores, a lot)and had moments of brilliance against Montreal. With Gustavsson on the shelf, Toskala can just go out and play; so while the pressure is mounting on the skaters, it may have been lifted from the netminder’s shoulders.

LEADING SCORERS (NHL.com):
GOALS:
1.    Alexander Semin (WSH), Alex Ovechkin (WSH), Mike Richards (PHI) – 5
4.    Five players tied with 4

POINTS:
1.    Nicklas Backstrom (WSH) – 10
2.    Alexander Semin (WSH), Alex Ovechkin (WSH), Dany Heatley (SJ), Joe Thornton (SJ) – 9

LEADING GOALTENDERS [2 OR MORE GAMES PLAYED] (NHL.com):
GAA:
1.    Ryan Miller (BUF) – 1.46
2.    Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) – 1.50
3.    Craig Anderson (COL) – 1.69
4.    Dan Ellis (NSH) – 1.92
5.    Pascal Leclaire (OTT) – 2.35

SAVE PERCENTAGE:
1.    Craig Anderson (COL) – .955
2.    Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) – .947
3.    Dan Ellis (NSH) – .938
4.    Jonas Hiller (ANA) – .930
5.    Ondrej Pavelec (ATL) – .929

LOOKING AHEAD

GAME OF THE WEEKEND: Washington at Detroit, 7 p.m. Saturday. The league’s most potent offense against the game’s primary dynasty since the mid-1990s. The game will tell a lot about what kind of season the Red Wings will have; if they can stay out of the penalty box and are crisp in their own defensive end, Detroit should give Washington quite a challenge. If they can’t, it could be a six-goal night in the Motor City, only for the visiting team. There could be a lot of important games for the Red Wings this season; this one marks the first.

OTHER GAMES OF NOTE:
–Anaheim at Philadelphia (SAT, 7:00 p.m.): Chris Pronger squares off against his former team for the first time as the Flyers look to bounce back from their first loss of the season.
QUESTION OF THE GAME: Does Ray Emery, fresh off two disappointing outings, get the start, or does Brian Boucher get his first look of the season? ANSWER: Look for head coach John Stephens to give Emery the nod in this one; with a 3-1-0 record, now is the time to see how Emery responds to adversity.
–Pittsburgh at Toronto (SAT, 7:00 p.m.): Pittsburgh has managed to look pretty average against teams it should beat. Toronto presents an opportunity for the Pens to look like the better team in a game where there should never be any question about it.
QUESTION OF THE GAME: Will the Leafs pick up their first win of the season? ANSWER: Very simply, no.

BOLD PREDICTION: Minnesota stuns San Jose at the Shark Tank on Saturday night. Nicklas Backstrom stops 30+ shots while allowing just one behind him, and after Monday’s premature prediction, Martin Havlat finally brings his goal-scoring touch to the rink.

NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTIONS: Washington’s Big Three (Ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom) all find twine against the porous Detroit defense; Steve Mason returns to form and reminds  the Phoenix Coyotes that, despite a hot start, they are still the Phoenix Coyotes, by backstopping the Blue Jackets to a three-goal victory.

CTP’S TEN BEST TEAMS RIGHT NOW:
1.    Calgary (4-0-0): Hard to argue with all that offense, if it keeps up.
2.    Philadelphia (3-1-0): Emery’s two subpar outings came against two of the league’s best offenses, and the Flyers still managed to split the contests.
3.    Pittsburgh (3-1-0): Yes, they beat Philly; they also needed overtime to beat the Islanders.
4.    New York Rangers (3-1-0): CTP remains wary of the Blueshirts despite a three-game winning streak, but if Marian Gaborik keeps scoring in bunches, the Rangers will be at number one very soon.
5.    Colorado (2-1-0): Don’t get used to the Avs on this list, but the team is undeniably playing very well. Having Craig Anderson in goal never hurts.
6.    Nashville (2-0-0): Nothing flashy, just a pair of strong 3-2 victories with a pair of strong efforts in goal.
7.    Atlanta (2-0-0): Two words: Ondrej Pavelec.
8.    San Jose (2-2-0): Inconsistent, yes. But making Steve Mason look like an ECHL goaltender is no easy task, and it appears the Sharks are finding their rhythm as Dany Heatley finds his.
9.    Washington (2-1-1): To say defense and goaltending are issues has a way of understating a major area of concern in D.C.
10.    Phoenix (2-1-0): The Coyotes might have had a case for the top 5, but the offense dried up against Buffalo and provided a glimpse of what the season is likely to be like in Phoenix.

And finally, CTP’S FIVE WORST TEAMS RIGHT NOW:
5.    Carolina (1-2-0): Beating Florida was a big sigh of relief, but the Canes’ first two games left a lot to be desired.
4.    Boston (1-2-0): Tim Thomas, Vezina Trophy winner: Where did you go?
3.    New Jersey (1-2-0): Let’s not forget, the Devils were one second and a Travis Zajac miracle away from an 0-3-0 start.
2.    Tampa Bay (0-2-1): They’ve been competitive in their last two games, but moral victories don’t count in the final standings.
1.    Toronto (0-2-1): It’s only three games, but Leafs fans should stop planning the parade route and consider the possibility that Toronto might just be bad enough to have a chance at drafting Taylor Hall next June. It’s unlikely, but it is possible.

CTP RETURNS ON MONDAY with the weekend recap.

TRANSACTIONS IN BRIEF (TSN.ca):
–Detroit signed forward Brad May to a one-year contract.
–Toronto recalled goaltender Joey MacDonald from AHL Toronto.

INJURIES IN BRIEF (TSN.ca, unless otherwise noted):
–Toronto goaltender Jonas Gustavsson placed on injured reserve (groin).
–Atlanta defenseman Boris Valabik out 4-6 weeks (ankle surgery).
–Chicago forward Ben Eager placed on injured reserve (unknown). (NHL.com)

WEDNESDAY’S LATE GAMES:
–VANCOUVER 7, Montreal 1: Vancouver finally broke out of its slump, Roberto Luongo finally looked like Roberto Luongo, and the Canucks grabbed their first victory of the year by dropping seven goals on Montreal goaltender Carey Price. Daniel and Henrik Sedin combined for seven points, and Luongo made 27 saves.

THURSDAY’S GAMES:
–Anaheim 6, BOSTON 1: Tim Thomas’s struggles continued as Corey Perry and Teemu Selanne each scored twice for Anaheim.  Jonas Hiller allowed a first period goal and was perfect thereafter, finishing with 33 stops.
–BUFFALO 2, Phoenix 1: Thomas Vanek netted the game winner with less than four minutes remaining in a tight defensive contest. His first of the year broke a 1-1 tie and gave Buffalo its first win of the year, while sending the Coyotes to their first defeat despite the best efforts of Jason LaBarbara. He made 37 saves, but was outdueled by Ryan Miller, who stopped 23 shots.
–OTTAWA 3, New York Islanders 2 (F/OT): One thing about the Islanders, they don’t go away easy. For the second time in as many games this season, New York pushed its opponent beyond regulation, before Mike Fisher’s goal gave Ottawa the victory. John Tavares did not score for the Islanders but Kyle Okposo netted his first of the young season. Martin Biron made 25 saves in a losing effort.
–Pittsburgh 5, PHILADELPHIA 4: First the Phillies lost at home, and then across the street mere hours later, the Flyers fell as well. Danny Briere and Jeff Carter each scored twice for Philadelphia, but Pittsburgh had five different scorers and just enough defense to grab the victory. Marc-Andre Fleury finished with 30 saves, but perhaps more significantly, Ray Emery had his second consecutive outing allowing five goals or more.
–New York Rangers 4, WASHINGTON 3: CTP declared Marian Gaborik as the single most important player to his team’s playoff hopes prior to the season; so far, the newest Blueshirt is doing his share. The Rangers improved to 3-1-0 thanks to a pair of goals by Gaborik, his third and fourth of the season, and the Caps fell once again due in part to a poor effort in their own end. Nicklas Backstrom scored twice to give Washington a 3-2 lead, but Jose Theodore (25 saves) could not hold the lead.
–DETROIT 3, Chicago 2: A three-goal second period was enough for Chris Osgood, who bounced back from a poor outing in the season opener to make 32 saves in Detroit’s first victory. Kris Draper, Johan Franzen and Nicklas Lidstrom all scored their first goals of the season against Cristobal Huet, who made just 20 saves in the loss.
–New Jersey 4, TAMPA BAY 3 (F/SO): Steven Stamkos scored his first two goals of the season, but the hero of the day was Travis Zajac, who tied the game with a second remaining in the game. From there, Martin Brodeur was perfect, stopping 41 shots including one in the shootout. Zach Parise followed a first period goal with a tally in the shootout, and Jamie Langenbrunner beat Mike Smith to give the Devils their first win of the year.
–Atlanta 4, ST. LOUIS 2: Ondrej Pavelec got the start for Atlanta and did not disappoint, making 29 saves as the Thrashers improved to 2-0-0 and sent the Blues to their first loss in three games. Ilya Kovalchuk had his second consecutive two-goal game and remains on pace for an unlikely 164-goal season. Chris Mason made 19 saves in a losing effort.
–NASHVILLE 3, Colorado 2: At long last, facing 35+ shots a game was too much for even Craig Anderson to overcome. The tough Avalanche netminder made 34 saves, but three goals allowed was too much for the Colorado offense. Dan Ellis made just 22 saves for the win, and Patric Hornqvist made it stick with two goals and the game winner.

THURSDAY’S LATE GAMES:
–EDMONTON 2, Calgary 0: 8:06, 2nd period.
–LOS ANGELES 2, Minnesota 0: 13:29, 1st period.
–Columbus 0, SAN JOSE 0: 15:52, 1st period.

TOMORROW: The first installment of Faceoff Friday, CTP’s weekly feature recapping the week that was and preparing for the upcoming weekend in NHL hockey.

TODAY’S TOP STORY: It was a slow news day, such that the Toronto Maple Leafs made the top story again. Just two days after it became known that the Vancouver Canucks had filed a complaint with the league alleging that Toronto GM Brian Burke had improperly discussed a rumored trade involving Vancouver on live television, the NHL ruled in favor of the Canucks and fined the Maple Leafs–but not because of Burke’s comments. Instead, the ruling was directed at head coach Ron Wilson, who had commented in the offseason about Toronto’s interest in Daniel and Henrik Sedin, who were due to become free agents. (TSN.ca)
CTP’S TAKE: There isn’t much to comment on, other than the fact that Toronto will likely be more careful with their public comments in the future, lest they receive more significant sanctions from the league. So far this season, the Leafs have been in the news quite a bit; unfortunately for Southern Ontario, it hasn’t been because they have been winning. Today’s news comes on the heels of a 2-1 loss last night to Ottawa.

IN OTHER NEWS…

WELCOME TO THE TEAM, SORT OF: Simon Despres, Pittsburgh’s first-round selection in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, was signed to a three-year entry level deal earlier today. Despres was entering his third season with Saint John of the QMJHL, and will remain with the club at least for the time being. (NHL.com)
CTP’S TAKE: It’s never a bad thing to sign your draft picks, but this signing has no effect on the 2009-10 Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens will likely look to get him some playing time in the AHL next season, but his contribution to the big club is likely more than a year away.

TRANSACTIONS IN BRIEF (NHL.com):
–Chicago traded defenseman Aaron Johnson to Calgary in exchange for forward Kyle Greentree.

INJURIES IN BRIEF (TSN.ca):
–Minnesota forward Pierre-Marc Bouchard is day-to-day (headaches).

FINES AND SUSPENSIONS (TSN.ca):
–Vancouver forward Darcy Hordichuk fined $2,500 for head contact with Columbus forward Jared Boll.
–Phoenix forward Francis Lessard suspended three games for boarding Anaheim forward Ryan Donally.

TUESDAY’S LATE GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
–CALGARY 4, Montreal 3: Staffan Kronwall broke a 3-3 tie early in the third period and kept the Flames perfect through three games. Erik Nystrom scored twice for Calgary, and Mikka Kiprusoff made 27 saves for the win.
MINNESOTA 4, Anaheim 3 (F/OT): Down 3-0 to start the third, Minnesota rallied to tie the game with 2:13 to play in regulation, and Andrew Brunette’s power play goal ended in it in the extra session. As CTP predicted on Monday, Mikka Koivu scored his first goal of the season, and while Martin Havlat fell short on said prediction, he added assists on all three third-period goals.
EDMONTON 5, Dallas 4 (F/SO): Nikolai Khabibulin made 30 saves en route to his 300th career victory. Brendan Morrow scored twice for Dallas, but Ales Hemsky was the hero for Edmonton, beating Marty Turco for the shootout’s lone goal.
LOS ANGELES 6, San Jose 4: Another underwhelming performance by Evgeni Nabokov led to his replacement by Thomas Greiss after the Kings went up 4-0. San Jose scored four unanswered power play goals (including a pair from Devin Setoguchi and Dany Heatley’s first as a Shark) to tie the game, but Teddy Purcell netted the game-winner just 26 seconds after Heatley’s tying goal.

WEDNESDAY’S GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
–Phoenix 3, PITTSBURGH 0: Ilya Bryzgalov made 24 saves en route to his first shutout of the young season, and the Coyotes remained unbeaten (although to be fair, they have played only twice). Radim Vrbata continued his hot start with his third goal of the year, while Ed Jovanovski and Petr Prucha also scored for Phoenix.

WEDNESDAY’S LATE GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
VANCOUVER 5, Montreal 1: 2nd intermission.

NOTE: CTP DAILY is intended as a brief recap of the day in the NHL with analysis as necessary; each story’s source will be credited, and further details will be available at the website listed. Credits are listed in parentheses; for example, today’s stories were all courtesy of NHL.com and TSN.ca.

TOMORROW: Another installment of CTP DAILY.

IN OTHER NEWS…

SENT DOWN: Montreal re-assigned forward Sergei Kostitsyn to Hamilton of the AHL on Tuesday. (TSN.ca)
CTP’S TAKE: TSN reported that the assignment was initially refused before the Belarus native had a change of heart, but this demotion was long overdue. Sergei had performed far below expectations while his brother, Andrei, played significantly better hockey (although, to be fair, his brother was drafted much higher and expected to be much better). The younger Kostitsyn will likely spend about a month in Hamilton, after which the Habs will recall him hoping for a more focused player.

TRANSACTIONS IN BRIEF (NHL.com):
–Montreal signed defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron to a one-year contract.
–Boston signed forward Milan Lucic to a three-year contract extension.
–MONDAY: Florida signed forward Dominic Moore to a one-year contract.
–MONDAY: New Jersey placed forward Brendan Shanahan on the non-roster list.
–SATURDAY: Columbus signed defenseman Rostislav Klesla to a four-year contract extension.

INJURIES IN BRIEF (TSN.ca):
–SUNDAY: Carolina forward Erik Cole out 4-6 weeks (fractured leg).
–SATURDAY: Montreal defenseman Andrei Markov out 3-4 months (knee surgery).

MONDAY’S GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
–Rangers 3, DEVILS 2: It was a Ranger Rookie Revolution, as Michael Del Zotto scored twice and Matt Gilroy added the third as New York improved to 2-1-0. Henrik Lundqvist made 25 saves.
–Blue Jackets 5, CANUCKS 3: Roberto Luongo’s struggles continued, as the Blue Jackets chased him early in the second period after jumping to a 4-1 lead. Rostislav Klesla scored twice, Nikita Filatov added his first goal of the season and Steve Mason stopped 40 shots for the win.

TUESDAY’S GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
–HURRICANES 2, Tampa Bay 1 (F/SO): Cam Ward and Mike Smith battled to a draw through 65 minutes, but Smith buckled twice in the shootout and the Hurricanes earned their first win of the season despite its continued struggles on offense. Ward made 29 saves while Smith stopped 27 shots.
–FLYERS 6, Washington 5 (F/OT): CTP predicted just 24 hours ago that Ovechkin would score twice in a Caps victory. He did indeed score twice, but Danny Briere’s overtime winner in an exciting offensive affair kept Philadelphia perfect through three games and on top of the Atlantic Division. Mike Richards recorded a hat trick, capping it off in the second period and causing a short delay to clean up the hats that had fallen from the stands.
–Senators 2, MAPLE LEAFS 1: Jonas Gustavsson made 26 saves in his NHL debut, but Daniel Alfredsson’s penalty shot gave the Senators a 2-0 second period lead and proved to be the difference. Pascal Leclaire made 26 saves for the win.

TUESDAY’S LATE GAMES (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):
Montreal 2, CALGARY 1: 8:13 remaining, 2nd period.
Anaheim 2, MINNESOTA 0: 12:30 remaining, 2nd period.
Dallas 1, EDMONTON 1: 1st intermission.
San Jose at LOS ANGELES: 10:15 p.m. start.

NOTE: CTP DAILY is intended as a brief recap of the day in the NHL with analysis as necessary; each story’s source will be credited, and further details will be available at the website listed. Credits are listed in parentheses; for example, today’s stories were all courtesy of NHL.com and TSN.ca.

TOMORROW: Another installment of CTP DAILY.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, RAY EMERY: Philadelphia’s starting netminder could hardly have started much better. The much-maligned Emery made 52 saves and allowed just two goals while playing on consecutive nights. Not only that, he pitched a rare season-opening shutout, and against a Carolina offense that is no slouch. And not only THAT, but  before finally allowing goals to the New Jersey Devils in the third period of that contest, Emery had stopped his first 50 shots since returning from a year in Russia. Not bad for a guy whose last NHL action was as Ottawa’s backup goaltender.
DISCLAIMER: New Jersey was playing its first game of the regular season and the Flyers got ahead early; the Devils, traditionally, thrive on small leads, not playing from behind. As for Carolina, the Hurricanes were promptly dismantled the next night, by Boston to the tune of a 7-2 romp. Carolina clearly has some bugs to work out offensively, but the jury is still out on a defense that many expected to be strong in 2009-10: The Hurricanes’ blue line kept the team in the game against Philadelphia, but was, um, lacking, against Boston. If Emery keeps up his stellar play, the Flyers are instant Cup contenders, but it’s still a bit too early to determine that one way or the other.

FISHSTICKS FOR EVERYONE?: Perhaps the Penguins saved their Stanley Cup hangover for game two, marching boldly to victory on the night they raised the championship banner just 24 hours earlier. Either way, the lowly New York Islanders, led by the likely 2010 Rookie of the Year, John Tavares, took the defending champs to overtime. Might the Islanders be better than expected this season? After all, they did three things that winning teams do: 1) score on the power play (2-for-6), 2) stay aggressive on the penalty kill (3-for-3), and 3) play well in goal (Dwayne Roloson stopped 39 shots). If nothing else, it’s a positive start on the island for a team that is very much in a rebuilding year.
DISCLAIMER: Rolo’s 39 saves suggest that the Isles possess a porous defense; certainly, the goaltending bailed them out. Continued success cannot be achieved when the backstop is constantly taking rubber. While the power play’s performance is worthy of attention, that of the PK does not because the Penguins are hardly known for their prowess on the man advantage. And have I mentioned that it’s just one game? The Islanders need a string of these before they can be anointed a darkhorse.

WASHINGTON’S RED LIGHT DISTRICT: Everyone knew the Capitals could score, and everyone knew Alex Ovechkin could score. And everyone REALLY knew that if the Caps were going to drop six goals on anyone this weekend, it was going to be the Maple Leafs. But four against Tim Thomas and the Boston Bruins? Making Boston look lost in its own zone is no easy task, but Washington and Ovechkin both looked to be in midseason form, with the latter rattling off three goals and three assists to take the early league lead in points. But what’s most impressive is who’s right behind him on the scoring chart: The top-four leading scorers from the opening weekend are all from America’s capital.
DISCLAIMER: Conventional wisdom says the Caps can’t average five goals a game over an 82-game season, and the odds certainly are against them. But this team will score, often enough to overcome shoddy goaltending (Jose Theodore looked better than Semyon Varlamov; eyebrows across America should now be in the raised position). However, if Washington looks this good this early, one wonders what is standing between them and the President’s Trophy.

VANCOUVER RHYMES WITH HOOVER: Which is fitting, because through two games, the Canucks suck. They couldn’t score (shut out on Saturday by Colorado after a better effort against Calgary), they couldn’t play defense (8 goals allowed), they couldn’t find any rhythm on the PK (55.6 percent success rate) and they haven’t gotten a spirited effort from one Roberto Luongo (42 saves). Do the math, and it equals a pair of games that were never close and an 0-2 start. Most concerning is that the team’s best forwards, the Sedin twins, evidently took the weekend off (one assist each). Last year’s Canucks were a strong team; this year’s slow start raises questions about the character and work ethic in Vancouver’s locker room. Will they be answered Monday against Columbus?
DISCLAIMER: Last year’s Canucks also dropped three straight in mid-October and finished the month at 6-5-0, but what most fans remember is the 6-0 rout of Calgary on opening night. That’s a difficult standard to maintain. There is concern that the Sedin’s lackluster play may be a season-long occurrence (after all, the twins did just receive big paydays from the Vancouver front office), but the Canucks are likely just unfortunate in running into an improved Calgary squad and a Colorado team playing very inspired hockey under first-year head coach Joe Sacco. Speaking of Colorado…

BREAK UP THE COLORADO AVALANCHE: Residents of Denver have lots to cheer about: The Rockies in the NLDS, the Broncos at 4-0, and the Avalanche perfect through two games with Craig Anderson in net. Joe Sacco has his unit playing together, sparked by Anderson’s spectacular play. And the Avs are scoring in droves! Colorado dropped a five-spot on San Jose’s normally stingy defense and have been on the receiving end of a few lucky breaks (Darcy Tucker’s redirect goal on Thursday night while falling over comes to mind), but Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny are looking like stars, and that is good news for a young Colorado squad.
DISCLAIMER: It’s hard to say if Colorado’s offense can keep scoring at or above three goals per game, but that will be a non-issue if the defense continues to give up over 30 shots a game. Shot totals in Anderson’s two victories were 40 and 35, or a 37.5 average that is entirely too high for sustained success. CTP’s Northwest Division preview proclaimed an underrated defense as the team’s potential strength, but so far the blue line is living up to last year’s expectations while reaping the benefits of a hot goaltender.

PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE RE-SIGNED TY CONKLIN: Detroit’s goaltending started the season in a manner that makes Tim Chevaldae seem like an appealing alternative by comparison. Or maybe Bob Essensa. Either way, Chris Osgood underwhelmed behind a defense that allowed just 23 shots, and then Jimmy Howard followed suit the next day while facing nine more pucks. Detroit proved last year that a team can win without starting goaltending, but consider this: Before last season, Detroit’s highest goals against average from a regular goaltender in the past decade was a 2.76 from Osgood, and that was in 2005-06. The goaltending had always been there, and they won frequently; last year it was not, and they still won frequently. But Detroit’s 0-2 start this season is cause for wonder if maybe this season will be less fruitful than past years.
DISCLAIMER: The Red Wings were swept by the Blues in a home-and-home, and the games were hardly defensive struggles. St. Louis has a potent offense when all its members are healthy, but more importantly, Detroit didn’t exactly hit the ground running last year, either. The Red Wings were outplayed on opening night by Toronto, and didn’t score more than three goals in a game until their fifth contest. Truthfully, though, Conklin was the team’s best goaltender last year, but in the offseason, Detroit went with the unproven Howard anyway. In a fitting bit of irony, Howard was the losing goaltender on Saturday while Conklin picked up the win for his new team.

OUTHOUSE TO PENTHOUSE, AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT: It was a good weekend for teams that struggled last season, as Buffalo, Atlanta, Nashville and Phoenix–all teams that missed the postseason–won their respective openers. Colorado, another non-playoff team, won its first two games; as did Montreal, last year’s Eastern 8th-seed that stumbled down the stretch and was swept by Boston in the first round.

OR MAYBE THE OTHER WAY AROUND: 2009 playoff participants New Jersey, Carolina, Detroit, Vancouver and Anaheim all went winless, although in fairness, the Devils and Ducks only played one game.

THIS WEEKEND’S SURPRISES: Brooks Laich (WSH), 2 goals and 3 assists; Carey Price (MTL), .951 save percentage, 1.89 goals against average.

THIS WEEKEND’S DISAPPOINTMENTS: Daniel and Henrik Sedin (VAN), 0 goals, 1 assist each; Jonathan Toews (CHI), 0 points; Vesa Toskala (TOR), .800 save percentage, 4.97 GAA.

CTP’S WEEKLY PICK ‘EM (TUESDAY, 10/6):
1) Washington at Philadelphia (both 2-0-0): Ovechkin welcomes Emery back to the NHL by scoring twice; Philly’s new goalie hangs tough, but the  Flyers offense can’t pull out the win. WINNER: Washington.
2) Montreal at Calgary (both 2-0-0): New-look Montreal looks old against Calgary. The Flames score early and the defense keeps the Habs just at arm’s length. WINNER: Calgary.
3) Anaheim at Minnesota (both 0-1-0): Surely a goaltending duel. Nicklas Backstrom, a tough-luck loser to Columbus (37 saves in a 2-1 loss), gets enough help this time as Mikka Koivu and Martin Havlat both score for the first time this season. WINNER: Minnesota.

TOMORROW: A first look at Cycling The Puck’s base model, preview- and weekend-recap-free. News, notes, brief game recaps and anything else noteworthy from around the NHL.

PACIFIC DIVISION

LOS ANGELES KINGS
2008-09: 34-37-11, 79 pts. (5th in division, 14th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Rob Scuderi, Ryan Smyth
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Kyle Calder, Tom Preissing, Kyle Quincey
GOALTENDING: Erik Ersberg, Jonathan Quick
HEAD COACH: Terry Murray
OVERVIEW: The word best used to describe the Los Angeles Kings is “potential”: 15 players on its roster are aged 26 or younger, including Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson. Those four, Alexander Frolov, Trevor Lewis, and Justin Williams are all former first round picks and all under 27, and they make up the core of a team that faltered late after being largely in the playoff hunt right up until the trade deadline. The Kings stayed in contention despite an average defense (8th in the West), an average power play and an all-around poor offense (28th in the league); however, the penalty kill unit was strong (7th in the league), and Jonathan Quick posted a .914 save percentage, which is solid by any standard. This year, the Kings add Stanley Cup hero Rob Scuderi, and Ryan Smyth, who will give them a gritty presence in the offensive zone. Brown and Kopitar will only get better, and a young defense is on an upswing as well. But by and large this team is still a year away, although look for the Kings’ young legs to be some of the freshest in the league in March and April. L.A. may not make the playoffs, but they’re likely to enjoy the spoiler role.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Ryan Smyth. Captain Canada will be surrounded by a lot of young and talented hockey players, and the influence he will have on them can only be positive. Smyth also provides instant heart wherever he goes; nobody plays harder night in and night out.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Offense. There’s no denying that the talent is there, but the goal scoring came from all of five guys, who combined for 119 goals. Nobody else on the roster had more than nine goals. Yikes.
PREDICTION: Next year will be an exciting year for hockey in Southern California. This year, however, will be another year to build and grow. The Kings will win eventually, but first, they must learn HOW to win. 4th in division.

PHOENIX COYOTES
2008-09: 36-39-7, 79 pts. (4th in division, 13th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Adrian Aucoin, Paul Bissonnette, Jason LaBarbara, Taylor Pyatt, James Vandermeer
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Nigel Dawes, Steven Reinprecht, Kyle Turris
GOALTENDING: Ilya Bryzgalov, Jason LaBarbara
HEAD COACH: Dave Tippett
OVERVIEW: Last season, the Phoenix Coyotes were a bad team. They couldn’t score (27th in the league), couldn’t play defense (24th), couldn’t play special teams (28th in both categories), and couldn’t win at home (13-24-4). One thing they could do was play well in the peace and quiet of Glendale Arena, and that may be the only reason they finished as high in the conference as they did. Now, the good news: The Coyotes did attempt to improve the defense, adding Adrian Aucoin and James Vandermeer. They also return Shane Doan, the best player nobody knows about (although anyone who saw the SuperSkills Competition now knows that Doan is for real), and Matthew Lombardi. And if the Ilya Bryzgalov who shined in Anaheim arrives in the desert after playing lousy for Phoenix last season, then the goaltending situation is solid with Jason LaBarbara as the backup. But this team still cannot (and will not) score. The Coyotes had one 30 goal scorer in Doan, but nobody else with more than 15. Oh yeah, and the team is still for sale. At least the Coyotes can play this season knowing they won’t be in Hamilton the next.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Coaching. Dave Tippett’s Dallas Stars won 41 or more games in five of his six seasons, including two 50-win campaigns and a trip to the Western Conference finals despite the storied playoff futility of one Marty Turco. Tippett’s coaching will make the Coyotes a less gritty and only slightly more talented version of last year’s Toronto Maple Leafs, but unfortunately for Phoenix, they don’t have the Islanders in their conference to keep them from finishing in the cellar.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Everything else, and that includes the ownership situation. With no scoring, little defense, awful special teams and questionable goaltending, one wonders how the Coyotes will get to 70 points this year, let alone last year’s 79.
PREDICTION: The worst team in the conference and the worst team in the league. But on the bright side, nobody will have a better chance to draft Taylor Hall. 5th in division.

DALLAS STARS
2008-09: 36-35-11, 83 pts. (3rd in division, 12th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Alex Auld, Karlis Skrastins, Jeff Woywitka
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Steve Begin, Brendan Morrison, Darryl Sydor
GOALTENDING: Marty Turco, Alex Auld
HEAD COACH: Marc Crawford
OVERVIEW: Sean Avery is not the reason this team struggled last season, nor did the negative effect he had on team chemistry before his banishment from the team linger for the rest of the season. With that out of the way, it’s hard to understand exactly why this team failed to make the postseason. On paper the defense was seemingly solid, but in practice it struggled, tied for worst in the West. It’s not surprising, then,  that the PK also struggled (24th in the league). But the offense seemingly had no reason to struggle, and Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson and James Neal obliged with 22, 36 and 24 goals, respectively. But Brad Richards, Brendan Morrison, Mike Modano and Fabian Brunnstrom never really got it going (Steve Ott found the net more frequently than all four of them, although to be fair, Ott scored a career-high 19 goals), and fittingly, the power play struggled along with them (27th in the league). Most troubling: Marty Turco didn’t help the defense whatsoever. His .898 save percentage was his worst mark in three seasons, and tied for the worst of his career. Alex Auld provides a solid backup, however, so Turco should see fewer games. And the additions of Karlis Skrastins and Jeff Woywitka should add depth to the blue line, furthering improving the team’s overall defensive effort. Offensively, however, this team underachieved last season. If the forwards meet expectations this time around, the Stars will be a candidate to return to the postseason.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Coaching. The Pacific is an extremely well-coached division, and Marc Crawford fits right in. Crawford won a Stanley Cup with Colorado and turned Vancouver into a perennial playoff contender in the early 2000s, and one has to wonder what he might have done with a young Kings team had he not been given his pink slip after only two seasons in L.A.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Special teams. Only five teams ranked in the bottom third of both special teams categories last year, and none of them made the playoffs. The PK should experience some improvement this season, but it has to improve from the net out. In other words, Turco has to be better for the Stars to compete this season.
PREDICTION: Dallas should be competitive this season, hanging around beyond the trade deadline and well into March. The offense has many bright spots, but there are plenty of longtime Stars on the roster who aren’t near as effective as they used to be. That will have an impact on the final standings, and it will leave the Stars outside of the playoff picture come April. 3rd in division.

ANAHEIM DUCKS
2008-09: 42-33-7, 91 pts. (2nd in division, 8th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Nick Boynton, Steve Eminger, Saku Koivu, Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Francois Beauchemin, Rob Niedermayer, Chris Pronger
GOALTENDING: Jonas Hiller, Jean-Sebastian Giguere
HEAD COACH: Randy Carlyle
OVERVIEW: Last year’s Anaheim Ducks just barely snuck into the playoffs, and given a very average offense and a very average defense, the credit must go to Jonas Hiller. Indeed, the Swiss netminder carried the Ducks on his back, all the way to the second round and a seventh game with the eventual Western Conference champions. He was aided by a trio of young forwards with spectacular talent: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf combined for 88 goals, and ageless wonder Teemu Selanne added another 26. Nobody else had more than 14 goals though, effectively putting a lot of pressure on the top two lines to get the job done. The offense got some help in the offseason with the additions of Saku Koivu and Joffrey Lupul, but the latter arrived via trade, and what a trade it was: Chris Pronger, a central cog in the 2007 Stanley Cup championship team, sent to Philadelphia for Lupul and Luca Sbisa. This is a fantastic trade by Anaheim GM Bob Murray. Pronger is 34 years old and not getting any better; Lupul is 26 and Sbisa 19, and the latter is a superstar waiting to happen. Best of all, he’ll get plenty of ice time and the opportunity to develop at the NHL level, a bright spot on another relatively average defense.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Goaltending. Jean-Sebastian Giguere struggled last year, but his career numbers don’t suggest that a repeat performance is in order. He’s still the same goaltender who led the team to two Cup Finals and one championship, and whether it’s him or Hiller in net, the Ducks will have a quality, capable performer in goal each and every night.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Offense. Lupul helps, but there’s still a total lack of depth. The Ducks will need a breakout player from the third line to put up 20 or more goals if they’re really to contend for the Pacific title. Could Erik Christensen be that guy?
PREDICTION: The Ducks should make the playoffs a little more comfortably this season, but they likely don’t have anything for the Sharks. Anaheim’s best bet at a deep playoff run is hoping for a hot goalie at the right time; otherwise, this team just isn’t deep enough to be a serious Cup contender. 2nd in division.

SAN JOSE SHARKS
2008-09: 53-18-11, 117 pts. (1st in division, 1st in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Dany Heatley, Scott Nichol
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Brian Boucher, Jonathan Cheechoo, Christian Ehrhoff, Mike Grier, Milan Michalek, Travis Moen
GOALTENDING: Evgeni Nabokov, Thomas Greiss
HEAD COACH: Todd McLellan
OVERVIEW: Sharks GM Doug Wilson promised big changes after last season’s embarrassing opening round defeat (Yes, Jonas Hiller was red hot for Anaheim, but that’s no excuse for a team that just won the President’s Trophy), and it was change he delivered. But it wasn’t through a big splash in free agency, nor was it a wholesale lineup overhaul; instead, Wilson took a risk by acquiring the oft-disgruntled Dany Heatley, and in so doing traded the young Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek. Heatley is a known entity and Michalek’s production is steady, but Cheechoo is very much an unknown following an abysmal season in 2008-09–advantage San Jose. The Sharks also return the entirety of last season’s third-best defense save for Christian Ehrhoff, who was arguably the most careless of the six with the puck. That also means they return much of last year’s fifth-ranked penalty kill, which should be good again this year. With Evgeni Nabokov in goal and Heatley joining a top-three power play unit alongside Joe Thornton and third-year phenom Devin Setoguchi, only a handful of questions remain: How much will the Sharks miss Michalek, can Heatley be content in San Jose, and can a franchise with a history of playoff futility finally get over the hump in 2009-10?
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Defense. Top to bottom, this unit can play; Rob Blake, Marc Vlasic, Doug Murray and Dan Boyle are as good a top four as any in the league. Expect this unit to keep the opponents goal total to around 200 again, which should make it plenty easy for the Sharks to win games.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Fortitude. There is no San Jose playoff curse (history in sports has no effect on the outcome of a game), but past Sharks teams have played defeated hockey in the postsesason. San Jose’s playoff ineptitude is well known, and the players know it too. Does this team have the guts and the mental stamina to handle the tremendous weight of expectations on this year’s team? Or will they, too, break under the pressure?
PREDICTION: For the 82 games before the playoffs,  San Jose will be the best team in hockey. They’ll cruise to another division title, lead the Western Conference and likely reclaim the President’s Trophy. None of that matters, of course, if they lose in the Western quarterfinals again, but don‘t expect that from this team. 1st in division.

And now, the final Western Conference playoff picture:

1. SAN JOSE*
2. DETROIT*
3. CALGARY*
4. CHICAGO
5. VANCOUVER
6. COLUMBUS
7. ANAHEIM
8. MINNESOTA
9. ST. LOUIS
10. DALLAS
11. LOS ANGELES
12. NASHVILLE
13. EDMONTON
14. COLORADO
15. PHOENIX
*Division Champion

QUARTERFINALS:
San Jose def. Minnesota, 4-3
Detroit def. Anaheim, 4-2
Columbus def. Calgary, 4-2
Vancouver def. Chicago, 4-2

SEMIFINALS:
San Jose def. Columbus, 4-3
Vancouver def. Detroit, 4-3

FINALS:
Vancouver def. San Jose, 4-3

And now, Cycling The Puck’s Western Conference Awards:

BEST OFFENSE: San Jose Sharks
BEST DEFENSE: Calgary Flames
POINTS LEADER: Pavel Datsyuk (DET)
GOALS LEADER: Dany Heatley (SJ)
TOP DEFENSEMAN: Dion Phaneuf (CAL)
TOP ROOKIE: Nikita Filatov (CMB)
BREAKOUT SEASONS: Filatov (CMB), Matt Duchene (COL), Fabian Brunnstrom (DAL), Trevor Lewis (LA), T.J. Oshie (STL)
BIGGEST SURPRISE (PLAYER): Erik Christensen (ANA)
BIGGEST SURPRISE (TEAM): Columbus Blue Jackets
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT (PLAYER): Mike Ribeiro (DAL)
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT (TEAM): Dallas Stars
MOST LIKELY TO LOSE TO AN AHL TEAM: Phoenix Coyotes
MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPEAR IN THE PLAYOFFS: Petr Sykora (MIN)
THE ENTIRE SEASON IN ONE PLAYER (The one player whose contribution will be most important to a team’s playoff chances): Martin Havlat (MIN)

And finally, some NHL award predictions:

HART TROPHY (MVP): Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
ART ROSS TROPHY: Malkin
MAURICE “ROCKET” RICHARD TROPHY: Alex Ovechkin (WSH)
VEZINA TROPHY: Steve Mason (CMB)
NORRIS TROPHY: Nicklas Lidstrom (DET)
CALDER TROPHY: John Tavares (NYI)
JACK ADAMS TROPHY: Cory Clouston (OTT)
SELKE TROPHY: Mike Richards (PHI)

Which brings us to this year’s Stanley Cup Finals prediction:

STANLEY CUP FINALS
Washington def. Vancouver, 4-2
CONN SMYTHE TROPHY: Alex Ovechkin

And that’s the full NHL preview. CTP will return on Monday to recap the opening weekend of the NHL season.

COLORADO AVALANCHE
2008-09: 32-45-5, 69 pts. (5th in division, 15th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Craig Anderson, David Koci, Tom Preissing
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Ian Laperriere, Andrew Raycroft, Ryan Smyth
GOALTENDING: Craig Anderson, Peter Budaj
HEAD COACH: Joe Sacco
OVERVIEW: How the mighty have fallen. Once a dynasty of sorts, and once part of the fiercest rivalry in all of hockey, the Colorado Avalanche have become mere afterthoughts in the discussion of today’s most powerful teams. Last year, “afterthought” implied that they were ever thought of at all, as the Avs snowballed their way to a last place finish. Losing Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny for extended periods of time helped make a bad season even worse. But there are reasons for hope in Denver this fall: Matt Duchene, the third overall pick in this summer’s draft, will start the year with the big club; Stastny, Milan Hejduk, and Wojtek Wolski are all back with the club; Craig Anderson claims the starting job in net, an upgrade over Peter Budaj; and truthfully, the defense shouldn’t be THAT bad. John-Michael Liles, Ruslan Salei, Scott Hannan and captain Adam Foote are four pretty decent blueliners (and Tom Preissing joins the unit this year), but despite that, Colorado was tied for the worst defense in the conference. Some of the credit for that goes to the offense: Nobody in the league scored less than the Avs, and opposing offenses spent a lot of time in Colorado’s end. That’s a recipe for poor plus/minus numbers and a statistically poor defense, and this year may be a repeat performance because there’s not much depth offensively behind the top-three forwards.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Defense (kind of), but don’t expect the numbers to back it up. Colorado will lose and lose quite a bit, but with any improvement on offense and Anderson in goal, they should lose by smaller margins and be in a lot more games.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Offense. With just 199 goals last season, the Avs became just the fifth team since the lockout to fail to score 200 times in a season. There doesn’t appear to be much in the lineup to add too much to last year’s total, but another sub-200 season seems pretty unlikely.
PREDICTION: Joe Sakic’s retirement, and losing Ryan Smyth to Los Angeles, renders this a young team without much offense and without much soul. Anderson’s addition gives them the chance to miss the playoffs by just ten points. They won’t be worse than last year’s club, but they won’t be much better, either. 5th in division.

EDMONTON OILERS
2008-09: 38-35-9, 85 pts. (4th in division, 11th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Nikolai Khabibulin
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Ales Kotalik, Dwayne Roloson, Mathieu Roy, Dany Sabourin
GOALTENDING: Nikolai Khabibulin, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers
HEAD COACH: Pat Quinn
OVERVIEW: Craig MacTavish was not a bad coach, but Pat Quinn is still an upgrade at the position, and he’s had a lot of success in a lot of different places over a long career behind the bench. Unfortunately, more success will likely have to wait until next season. The offense spreads the scoring around, as ten players had 10 or more goals for the Oilers last season, but only three of them (including Sheldon Souray, a defenseman, who tied for the team lead with 23) had 20 or more, and one of them (Ales Kotalik) left via free agency. Statistically speaking, the defense is aging, but solid–Edmonton was tied for fourth-worst in goals allowed largely due to weak penalty kill that allowed 76 goals in 2008-09, and the worst plus/minus for a regular defenseman was Ladislav Smid’s minus-6. And Nikolai Khabibulin is a bona fide number one who figures to put up better numbers than the outgoing Dwayne Roloson. All this is good news, but Edmonton is in desperate need of true top-three forwards (although Ales Hemsky almost qualifies here) and thusly a true top line to create mismatches.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Coaching. Excluding the 1981-82 season when he was fired by the Flyers, and the 1986-87 season when he resigned the Kings post, a Pat Quinn-coached team has failed to make the playoffs only twice in 17 seasons. This team will sweat the small details and be fundamentally sound, and if a few of Edmonton’s many young forwards experience breakout seasons, this team could remain in the playoff hunt and just maybe sneak into one of the final spots.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Inexperienced forwards. The Oilers have ten forwards aged 24 or younger. That’s good news for next year, but not so much for this season. Gilbert Brule and Andrew Cogliano seem to have the most promise this season, but they too may be a year away from making a significant impact on this team.
PREDICTION: The Northwest Division gives the Southeast a serious run for the weakest division in hockey this season. Even with that in mind, Edmonton is only good enough to finish a distant fourth in this division, with an outside chance to make the postseason. 4th in division.

MINNESOTA WILD
2008-09: 40-33-9, 89 pts. (3rd in division, 9th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Martin Havlat, Shane Hnidy, Petr Sykora
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Marian Gaborik, Martin Skoula
GOALTENDING: Nicklas Backstrom, Josh Harding
HEAD COACH: Todd Richards
OVERVIEW: Last year’s defense was the best in hockey, the penalty kill was second best, and the Wild was one of only four teams to be in the top ten in both special teams categories (Philadelphia, San Jose and St. Louis were the others). And they still have Nicklas Backstrom, a workhorse of a netminder who just happens to be one of the best in the league. This is a playoff team, right? Not so fast. Minnesota’s best player (when healthy), Marian Gaborik, has left for New York. He is replaced by Martin Havlat, Chicago’s leading scorer last season, who despite playing 81 games last year is not exactly Mr. Durability himself (119 games played between 2005 and 2008). Mikko Koivu is blossoming into a star, and Owen Nolan and Andrew Brunette enjoyed solid seasons in ‘Sota last season, but the scoring thins out significantly after that, and new addition Petr Sykora‘s putrid postseason casts doubt on the 32-year-old’s ability. As for that league-best defense, Marc-Andre Bergeron and Martin Skoula left via free agency, and Wild management only signed Shane Hnidy to address the void. Nick Schultz, Brent Burns, Kim Johnsson and Marek Zidlicky do return, however, and don’t be fooled by their collective minus-26: When the PK only allows 36 goals, that makes for a lot of even strength goals to count against the plus/minus.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Goaltending. Backstrom is a beast and a major reason for the PK’s success, but when given a rare night off, Josh Harding can play a little bit as well (2.21 GAA, .929 save percentage). Teams will need their best offense to beat the Wild.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Offense. Owen Nolan is 37 years old and can’t be counted on for another 25-goal season. Havlat will score and is a favorite to play more than the 17 games Gaborik got into last year, and the Mikka Koivu Star Watch is on. That being said, there isn’t much more on offense than that; Pierre-Luc Bouchard, Antti Miettinen and Eric Belanger may make up their second scoring line.
PREDICTION: Again, it’s a weak division. A lockdown defense makes up for some of their offensive ineptitude, but can the Wild be that good in their own end again? If they are, the Wild have a chance at one of the last two playoff berths. If not, they’ll compete with Colorado for last in the division. 3rd in division.

CALGARY FLAMES
2008-09: 46-30-6, 98 pts. (2nd in division, 5th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Jay Bouwmeester, Staffan Kronwall, Fredrik Sjostrom
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Adrian Aucoin, Todd Bertuzzi, Mike Cammalleri, Jordan Leopold
GOALTENDING: Mikka Kiprusoff, Curtis McElhinney
HEAD COACH: Brent Sutter
OVERVIEW: Nobody scored more goals for Calgary than Mike Cammalleri and his 39 tallies last season, and losing him to free agency is a big deal. The Flames failed to pick up anybody to make up the difference, and that could drop the conference’s fifth best offense to something more like seventh or eighth, even with captain Jarome Iginla picking up some of the slack. The defense, however, may be the West’s best, and just a year removed from allowing as many goals as their inter-provincial rivals, the Edmonton Oilers. Dion Phaneuf hits like a truck, and the 3-5 defensemen (Robyn Regehr, Cory Sarich, Mark Giordano) were a plus-24. Now add the coveted Jay Bouwmeester, himself an Alberta native, and the Flames are going to be a very difficult team to score on. It should make things much easier for Mikka Kiprusoff, who is certainly a workhorse but has seen inflating numbers as a result: Kipper has played at least 74 games each of the last four seasons, and since the lockout (the season after which the streak began), his goals against average has gone up every season while his save percentage has gone down. His playoff numbers the last two seasons suggest that come April, Kiprusoff is a very tired goaltender.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Defense. If the blue line has a weakness, it will be its sixth man, and even that isn’t certain: Adam Pardy was a plus-3 in 60 games last season.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Goaltending. Brent Sutter obviously has no confidence in Curtis McElhinney, but if he can’t keep Kiprusoff fresh by giving the backup a few more starts, the Flames don’t stand a chance of advancing beyond the conference semifinals, let alone making a Stanley Cup run.
PREDICTION: The defense makes the difference, and an already tremendous penalty kill (fourth-best in the league) only stands to improve. The Flames missed out on a division title by two points last season, but they won’t miss out on it this year. 1st in division.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS
2008-09: 45-27-10, 100 pts. (1st in division, 3rd in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Christian Ehrhoff, Andrew Raycroft, Mikael Samuelsson, Mathieu Schneider
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Jason LaBarbara, Mattias Ohlund, Taylor Pyatt, Curtis Sanford, Mats Sundin
GOALTENDING: Roberto Luongo, Andrew Raycroft
HEAD COACH: Alain Vigneault
OVERVIEW: The goaltending in Vancouver is a known entity, and anything less than a Vezina Trophy-caliber effort should never be expected of Roberto Luongo. And in other good news, all five of Vancouver’s 20-goal scorers, including the Sedin twins (who combined for 53 tallies) and Alexandre Burrows (28 last season). But while the West’s fourth-best defense was quietly fantastic last season, replacing its best stay-at-home guy (Mattias Ohlund) with a 40-year-old still on injured reserve (Mathieu Schneider) was a questionable proposition. On the other hand, Alexander Edler and Shane O’Brien are young and outstanding; and Sami Salo and Willie Mitchell are proven veteran D-men. Still, two lingering questions remain: Is Vancouver getting 2007-08 Christian Ehrhoff, the defensive-minded blueliner with one goal and a plus-9, or the 2008-09 model that scored 8 goals but was minus-12? And perhaps more importantly, will Schneider be the same coming off of shoulder surgery? One other point of note: Vancouver’s special teams were very average, with both units hovering around the middle of the pack . The PK is serviceable and the Canucks will be good regardless, but an improvement on the man advantage could go a long way toward making this team a Stanley Cup contender.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Roberto Luongo. Only Henrik Lundqvist has as much impact on a game as the Montreal native, and the only knock on Luongo is that his teams fail to rally around him when the games matter most: He has a .930 save percentage and a 2.09 goals against average in the postseason, but his win-loss record is just 11-11-0.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Special teams, as noted above. The Canucks can be really special if their special teams numbers more closely match a team of their talent.
PREDICTION: As with the Flames, defense will make the difference, and Calgary’s unit is just a bit better. The Canucks will finish a close second in a division that will come right down to the season’s final game. 2nd in division.

Tomorrow, CTP wraps up the NHL preview with a look at the Pacific Division and the Western Conference playoff picture.

CENTRAL DIVISION

NASHVILLE PREDATORS
2008-09: 40-34-8, 88 pts. (5th in division, 10th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Colin Wilson
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Radek Bonk, Scott Nichol, Greg De Vries
GOALTENDING: Pekka Rinne, Dan Ellis
HEAD COACH: Barry Trotz
OVERVIEW: The 2009 Western Conference Overachievers of the Year, the Predators were very unimpressive on paper last season and not much has changed over the offseason. The fourth-worst offense one year ago, Nashville was outscored 213-233, but was eight games over .500 and missed the postseason by only three points largely because of defenseman Shea Weber and goaltender Pekka Rinne. Weber has emerged as the Mike Green of the Western Conference (or maybe Mike Green is the Shea Weber of the East? You be the judge), and has become an even greater physical presence in his own end than his counterpart in Washington. Rinne, on the other hand, might have made a case for the Calder Trophy if not for the incredible misfortune of playing in the same division as eventual winner Steve Mason. Rinne put up a .917 save percentage, 2.38 goals against average season and often carried a team whose offense sputtered in front of him. The defense, sixth-best in the West last year, is young (Dan Hamhuis is its oldest member, at 26) and has lots of upside, but its fifth and sixth men are getting their first tastes of the NHL. And offensively, Steve Sullivan is still a scoring threat when in the lineup, but he has struggled with injuries the last two seasons. J.P. Dumont led the team in scoring with 65 points last season, but the Predators will need somebody to score more than that if they want to contend in the Central.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Potential. Nashville has 16 players on its roster aged 26 or younger, including 2008 first round pick Colin Wilson, who should make his NHL debut at some point this season. The roster also has six more players over 30, whose collective veteran presence can only be a positive experience for the younger members of the team.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Offense. Specifically, where is it going to come from? The Predators were tied for fifth-worst on the man advantage in 2008-09, and in all situations, had only three players with 20 or more goals. One of those three was not Dumont, who netted just 16 goals. Teams that cannot score do not win; of the 11 teams that scored 230 goals or fewer last season, only the New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets reached the postseason, and both of them were handed first-round exits.
PREDICTION: 2009-10 will be another last place finish for Nashville. The Central is a tough division, but the Predators are likely to struggle this season and should look more like a last place team than they did a season ago. 5th in division.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
2008-09: 41-31-10, 92 pts. (4th in division, 7th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Mathieu Garon, Samuel Pahlsson, Mathieu Roy, Anton Stralman
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Christian Backman, Manny Malhotra, Aaron Rome, Jason Williams
GOALTENDING: Steve Mason, Mathieu Garon
HEAD COACH: Ken Hitchcock
OVERVIEW: The sky is the limit in Columbus. A year removed from the franchise’s first ever playoff berth, and with a young team that last year began to fulfill its promise, there is reason to believe that the Blue Jackets can contend for the division title in 2009-10. The team is built from the net out, with Steve Mason returning from a Calder Trophy campaign completely healthy (he had mononucleosis for much of the second half of the season) and Mathieu Garon providing the backup duties (Garon provides an experienced alternative to Dan LaCosta and should be an upgrade despite his struggles last season). Defensively, Jan Hejda, Fedor Tyutin and Rostislav Klesla return after combining for a plus-35 rating one year ago; even without Christian Backman and Aaron Rome, the Blue Jackets are hoping Mathieu Roy and Anton Stralman can emerge as quality third-pairing defensemen. And although the offense seemed to struggle last year (10th-ranked in the conference), rookie phenom Derick Brassard’s season-ending injury in December made a huge difference. With a healthy Brassard, the Blue Jackets have a strong trio of forwards including Kristian Huselius and Rick Nash. They should also get a full season from Nikita Filatov; although he only played eight games last season, he scored in his NHL debut and also posted a hat trick. He could blossom into a talent and turn the Blue Jackets from one of the worst offensive clubs to one of the best.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending. Simply put, Mason gives Columbus a chance to win every game.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Power play. The Blue Jackets’ man advantage in 2008-09 could best be described as horrendous, worst in the league at 12.7 percent. To put that figure into perspective, Chicago’s Ben Eager, he of 11 goals last season, had a better shooting percentage (13.8 percent) than the Blue Jackets’ power play conversion rate. Brassard’s return will help those numbers, but Columbus suffers from a lack of size; only Nash and Fredrik Modin have the size to create traffic in front, and the Blue Jackets need their captain to be creating space on the power play, not taking it up.
PREDICTION: Ken Hitchcock has done wonderful things with the franchise, but the team’s playoff effort definitely had an air of “just happy to be there” to it. They’ll make a better run this year, and if they exceed expectations in the regular season, might even have a chance at home ice advantage in the first round. 3rd in division.

ST. LOUIS BLUES
2008-09: 41-31-10, 82 pts. (3rd in division, 6th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Ty Conklin, Darryl Sydor
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Jay McKee, Jeff Woywitka
GOALTENDING: Chris Mason, Ty Conklin
HEAD COACH: Andy Murray
OVERVIEW: The St. Louis Blues returned to relevance last season after not reaching the postseason since 2004. They reached the playoffs despite a middling offense (233 goals for, eighth in the conference), injuries to Paul Kariya (15 games played) and budding star Erik Johnson (0 games played), and a preseason question mark in netminder Chris Mason, then a year removed from a forgettable 2007-08 campaign. Mason answered his critics (2.41 GAA, .917 save percentage), the defense responded to adversity (233 goals allowed), and three young forwards (David Backes, Patrick Berglund and David Perron) posted  breakout seasons to join Brad Boyes and Keith Tkachuk at the top of the Blues’ scoring chart. And oft-injured Andy McDonald was in his usual form, posting nearly a point per game despite missing half the season to injury. This season, the nucleus of last year’s team returns, Erik Johnson rejoins the lineup, and Darryl Sydor joins Eric Brewer and Barrett Jackman to make for a strong top four on the blue line. Jay McKee and Jeff Woywitka were the team’s best D-men a year ago, and both are no longer in St. Louis, but the unit is solid without them and should have an even better season in 2009-10.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Special teams. The Blues likely miss the playoffs last season if not for the spectacular effort from their special teams units. Only the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild were better on the penalty kill, and the 8th-ranked power play converted 20.5 percent of its chances.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Consistency. St. Louis had plenty of success last season despite injuries. The biggest challenge the Blues face this season is continued improvement in a tough division.
PREDICTION: The potential is there for a very strong season. Unfortunately, playing in the Central, they are likely the fourth best team. That doesn’t mean they can’t make a run in the postseason, and the goaltending situation is better than in both Chicago and Detroit. But even with full seasons from Kariya and McDonald, the Blues probably don’t have enough offense to keep up with the rest of the division over an 82-game season. 4th in division.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
2008-09: 46-24-12, 104 pts. (2nd in division, 4th in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Marian Hossa, Tomas Kopecky, John Madden
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Martin Havlat, Nikolai Khabibulin, Samuel Pahlsson, Matt Walker
GOALTENDING: Cristobal Huet, Antii Niemi, Corey Crawford
HEAD COACH: Joel Quenneville
OVERVIEW: The Blackhawks are without last year’s leading scorer, Martin Havlat, and the better of their goalies last season, Nikolai Khabibulin. The former was addressed with the signing of Marian Hossa (to arguably one of the more ridiculous contracts since Rick DiPietro), but the latter remains an issue. Huet was by no means bad in 2008-09 (2.53 GAA, .909 save percentage), but his performances in the Winter Classic (uninspired) and the postseason (atrocious) have to raise questions in the Windy City. Still, the defense last season was third-best in the West and fifth-best in the league, and is only lacking Matt Walker from last year’s blue line. Brian Campbell, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are as good a top-three as any in the league, and they’ll need to be good if Huet struggles. Offensively, Hossa and John Madden replace Havlat and Samuel Pahlsson, which is a slight improvement overall to a unit that was hardly struggling to begin with–the Blackhawks were tied for fourth in total offense last season. But 2009-10 represents perhaps Chicago’s last year of serious contention, as the Hawks are staring at some serious salary cap issues: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Andrew Ladd and Jonathan Toews are all restricted free agents at season’s end. Hossa’s contract is an albatross, and it will be difficult to get two, let alone all four of them, re-signed while still squeezing in under the cap.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Scoring. The young Hawks are a team built around guys with noses for the net, and this team will get production from all four lines.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Goaltending and special teams. Huet’s inconsistency renders him a tremendous wild card, such that a poor season from the French netminder could possibly leave the Blackhawks outside of the playoff picture. The special teams is a great unknown also: Although the offense and defense were so strong at even strength last season, the PK was ranked 18th and the power play ranked 12th, or average production from above-average talent.
PREDICTION: A solid effort in goal will allow Chicago to contend for the division title once again, but Huet will likely be average and it will be the offense getting the Blackhawks safely into the postseason. 2nd in division.

DETROIT RED WINGS
2008-09: 51-21-10, 112 pts. (1st in division, 2nd in conference)
NOTEWORTHYADDITIONS: Todd Bertuzzi, Patrick Eaves
NOTEWORTHY LOSSES: Ty Conklin, Marian Hossa, Tomas Kopecky
GOALTENDING: Chris Osgood, Jimmy Howard
HEAD COACH: Mike Babcock
OVERVIEW: Todd Bertuzzi and Patrick Eaves certainly won’t be able to replicate Marian Hossa’s production, but consider this: Prior to Detroit’s most recent Stanley Cup championship, Johan Franzen’s career was mostly that of a grinder-type forward. Once promoted to the Wings’ second line, The Mule blossomed into a goal scoring monster, so whoever steps into Hossa’s place in the lineup will produce like he has never produced before. Otherwise, the Red Wings return pretty much everyone from last season’s squad, which means opposing defenses still have to contend with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, and opposing offenses still have to contend with the best defenseman since Bobby Orr, Nicklas Lidstrom (NOTE: CTP recommends re-branding the Norris Trophy as the Lidstrom Trophy immediately following his retirement). The only two areas for concern are Chris Osgood (3.03 GAA, .887 save percentage) and a dreadful PK (25th-ranked, 78.3 percent). Otherwise, the Red Wings are likely to march through the regular season just like always, and triumphantly claim their ninth consecutive Central Division title.
BIGGEST STRENGTH: Just about everything. The Red Wings play well as a team and each player knows his role, meaning that even on their worst nights, Detroit is still very much in the game.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Goaltending. It wouldn’t be that shocking if Jimmy Howard, who is finally getting a chance at the NHL level after four years in Grand Rapids, made 35-40 starts. Osgood doesn’t necessarily have to be better for the Red Wings to return to the Stanley Cup Finals (Detroit perennially is an exception to the old axiom, “goaltending wins championships”), but any improvement in goal will make the road back to the Finals a much easier one to navigate.
PREDICTION: Another year, another division title. 1st in division.

Tomorrow, the Northwest Division preview.